Atlantic Discussions
Basin Outlook & Discussion
Expires:No;;215082
ABNT20 KNHC 180532
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Tue Jun 18 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems: 
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Potential 
Tropical Cyclone One, located over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Southwestern Atlantic Ocean:
An area of cloudiness and showers located several hundred miles east 
of the Bahamas is associated with a surface trough and an 
upper-level area of low pressure.  Environmental conditions could be 
conducive for some gradual development of this system during the 
next few days while it moves westward or west-northwestward.  The 
system is forecast to approach the coast of the southeastern United 
States on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
Another broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the 
southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Environmental conditions 
are expected to be conducive for gradual development of this system 
early next week while it moves slowly northward or northwestward. 
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

&&
Public Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone One are issued 
under WMO header WTNT31 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCPAT1.
Forecast/Advisories on Potential Tropical Cyclone One are issued 
under WMO header WTNT21 KNHC and under AWIPS header MIATCMAT1.

$$
Forecaster Hagen/Pasch


						

Expires:No;;212844
AXNT20 KNHC 180431
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Jun 18 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Potential Tropical Cyclone One (PTC One). Potential Tropical 
Cyclone One is near 20.8N 93.0W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving 
north-at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 
45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 999 mb. The 
disturbance is quite large with tropical-storm-force winds 
extending outward up to 252 nm to the northeast of the center. 
Seas are peaking near 12 ft near the center. Numerous moderate 
to scattered strong convection is observed west of 77W in the 
Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico. Heavy rains are also impacting 
portions of southern Mexico, Central America, western Cuba, 
Cayman Islands and Jamaica. A turn toward the west-northwest is 
expected Tuesday night or Wednesday, and the system is likely to 
approach the western Gulf coast late Wednesday.

Rainfall associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone One will
impact large regions of Central America, northeastern Mexico
and South Texas. This rainfall will likely produce considerable 
flash and urban flooding along with new and renewed river 
flooding. Mudslides are also possible in areas of higher terrain 
across Central America into northeast Mexico.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
and the latest Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 30.5W, south of 16N,
moving westward at 10-15 knots. No deep convection is noted near 
the trough axis.

An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 65W, south of 17N, 
moving westward at 10-15 knots. No deep convection is noted near 
the trough axis. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of 
Guinea-Bissau near 12N17W, then continues southwestward to 
06N40W. The ITCZ extends from 06N40W to 07N54W. Scattered 
moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 04N to 
10N and east of 26W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is evident from 03N to 07N and between 37W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
Potential Tropical Cyclone One and its impacts.

Potential Tropical Cyclone One covers most of the Gulf of Mexico,
producing numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms except in
the NE Gulf and west of 94W. The strongest convection is seen in
the Bay of Campeche. The pressure gradient between PTC One and 
the ridge in the NW Atlantic is supporting strong to minimal 
gale force E winds west of 86W, including the Yucatan Channel. 
East of 86W E winds are fresh. Seas are 8-12 ft west of 86W and 
5-8 east of 86W. While the highest seas across the waters from 
22N-26N between 86W and 91W. 

For the forecast, Potential Tropical Cyclone One is near 20.8N 
93.0W at 11 PM EDT, and is moving north at 6 kt. Maximum 
sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum 
central pressure is 999 mb. One will move to 21.6N 92.8W Tue 
morning, 22.6N 93.6W Tue evening, 23.2N 95.3W Wed morning, 23.5N 
96.9W Wed evening, then inland to 23.7N 98.1W Thu morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on
Potential Tropical Cyclone One and its impacts. 

The broad nature of Potential Tropical Cyclone One results in
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the central 
and NW Caribbean Sea. Similar convection is also impacting 
Hispaniola. Drier conditions are noted elsewhere in the basin. 
The pressure gradient between PTC One and a 1027 mb high 
pressure system in the NW Atlantic sustains fresh to locally 
near gale-force SE winds in the NW Caribbean, especially west of 
83W. Stronger gusts are possible with the strongest convection. 
Seas in these waters are 7-10 ft. Fresh to locally strong 
easterly winds and seas of 3-6 ft are noted in the south-central 
Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas 
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, a broad circulation around Potential Tropical 
Cyclone One will support fresh to near gale- force SE winds with 
scattered showers and thunderstorms across the NW Caribbean 
through at least Wed night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades 
over the central and E Caribbean will reach moderate to fresh 
speeds by midweek and prevail through late Fri.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from 31N53W toward the Dominican 
Republic. A weak 1013 mb low is analyzed along the trough axis 
near 24N64W. Scattered showers and thunderstorm are active 
along, and ahead this trough. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 5-7 
ft seas are noted west of the trough, with moderate or weaker 
breezes and 3-5 ft seas elsewhere west of 55W. The remainder of 
the Atlantic discussion area is dominated by strong ridge north 
of the Azores. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower 
pressures in NW Africa sustain fresh to strong northerly winds 
and seas of 6-9 ft from 18N to 24N and east of 21W. Elsewhere in 
the basin, gentle to moderate winds and seas in the 4-6 ft range 
prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, Scattered showers and isolated 
thunderstorms persist in the vicinity of a surface trough 
extending from 31N55W to low pres near 24N64W to 21N69W. 
Environmental conditions could be conducive for some development 
of the low during the next few days while it moves westward or 
west- northwestward. The system is forecast to approach the 
coast of the southeast United States by the end of the week. 
Regardless of development, fresh to strong winds and rough seas 
will prevail across the waters N of 25N through Thu.

$$
KRV


						
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