Atlantic Discussions
Basin Outlook & Discussion
Expires:No;;678984
ABNT20 KNHC 302312
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. 

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 
2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical 
Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, 
Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions 
warrant.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


						

Expires:No;;523829
AXNT20 KNHC 222102
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Fri Feb 23 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Ocean Gale Warning: A strong cold front will 
emerge off the Florida coast on Fri. Gale-force southerly winds 
are expected ahead of the front across the north waters, mainly N 
of 29N between 65W and 80W, Fri through Sat. Rough to very rough 
seas will follow the front.

All marine interests in the areas must be cautious and plan 
accordingly. Please, read the latest High Seas that is issued by 
the National Hurricane Center at the website 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and extends to
02N25W. The ITCZ continues from 02N25W to 01S46W. Scattered 
moderate convection is noted from 00N to 06N between 05W and 24W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

High pressure prevails across the Gulf of Mexico. Fresh to strong
southerly return flow is found W of 94W. Moderate to fresh winds
prevail elsewhere, except for over the SE Gulf where gentle winds
are noted. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the NW Gulf, and 2-4
ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, the ridge will shift eastward ahead of the next
cold front forecast to emerge off the Texas coast tonight. Fresh 
to strong southerly winds are ahead of the front over the western 
Gulf. The front will reach from the western Florida Panhandle to 
near Brownsville, Texas by Fri morning, and will be over the south
waters on Sat morning, extending across the Straits of Florida to
near Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to fresh northerly winds can be 
expected behind the front with moderate seas. Surface high 
pressure will build in the wake of the front late Sat through 
early next week. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate to fresh northerly winds prevail between 66W and 82W.
Light to gentle winds are found elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft
range in the SW Caribbean, and 1-3 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will return to the south-
central Caribbean by Fri night and persist through the weekend, 
but mainly at night. A cold front will reach the NW Caribbean by 
Sat afternoon, and extend from eastern Cuba to the coast of 
Quintana Roo, Mexico near 19N87.5W on Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N57W to 24N58W. Scattered moderate and
isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the front. 
Fresh to strong winds, locally near gale, and rough seas to 10 ft
are noted on either side of the front. A 1007 mb low is centered
near 29N65W, with a trough extending SW to near the southern
Bahamas. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
within 120 nm N semicircle of the low. Fresh to strong winds, and
seas of 8-11 ft, are noted within 120 nm W of the trough. 
Moderate to fresh winds, locally strong, are between the trough 
and the cold front. Light to gentle winds are W of 75W. Elsewhere
W of 60W, seas of 6-8 ft prevail. Farther east, high pressure
prevails across the waters N of 20N. Fresh to strong winds are
noted from 10N to 22N between 22W and 35W, with moderate to fresh
winds elsewhere E of 60W. Seas of 6-9 ft generally prevail
elsewhere. 

For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front will reach from 31N56W 
to 20N58W by Fri morning while dissipating. A frontal trough will 
remain in the area on Sat, and drift westward toward the Leeward 
Islands on Sun. Winds and seas associated with this system will 
improve by Fri night into Sat. A strong cold front will emerge off
the Florida coast on Fri. Gale force southerly winds are expected
ahead of the front across the north waters, mainly N of 29N and W
of 65W, Fri through Sat. Rough to very rough seas will follow the
front, forecast to extend from 31N73W to the Straits of Florida 
on Sat, and from 31N62W to eastern Cuba on Sun. 

$$
AL


						
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