Atlantic Discussions
Basin Outlook & Discussion
Expires:No;;937443
ABNT20 KNHC 302312
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
700 PM EST Thu Nov 30 2023

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days. 

This is the last regularly scheduled Tropical Weather Outlook of the 
2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season. Routine issuance of the Tropical 
Weather Outlook will resume on May 15, 2024. During the off-season, 
Special Tropical Weather Outlooks will be issued as conditions 
warrant.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


						

Expires:No;;756633
AXNT20 KNHC 281103
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Thu Mar 28 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

...CENTRAL ATLANTIC GALE WARNING...

A slow moving cold front extends from the central Leeward Islands
northeastward and spirals in to deep layered low pressure over 
the western Atlantic, where complex surface low pressure extends
from just SE of Bermuda to 25N64W. The cold front extends from the
Lesser Antilles to 25N54W to 31N60W. A broad high pressure ridge
NE of the front is inducing a tight pressure gradient along and NE
of the front, producing an elongated band of strong to gale-force
SE winds up to 300 nm E of the front, with gales occurring within
about 150 nm E of the front from 26N to 33N. Seas within this zone 
are 10 to 15 ft. The surface low pressure will move SE and weaken
today, while the front drifts eastward, and the gales move north
of 31N this afternoon. The low pressure and front are expected to
move NE and and out of the area Fri as the next frontal system
moves into the western Atlantic.

...ATLANTIC SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT...

Very large northerly swell, that has originating in the NE 
Atlantic offshore of Europe, will enter the far NE Atlantic waters
S of 31N this morning. Seas will quickly build to 12 ft and
greater, and reach a peak of around 19 feet, this evening and tonight.
Seas of 12 ft will reach as far W as 46W early Fri, and as far S
as 20N Fri evening before subsiding below 12 ft early on Sat.

Please, read the latest High Seas Forecast, at 
www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml, for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra 
Leone near 07.5N13W to 01N30W. The ITCZ continues from 01N30W to
the coast of Brazil near 02.5S44W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 01.5N to 08N between 19W and 53W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A slow moving cold front extends from the NE Gulf near Cedar Key, 
Florida to the NE coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. A cluster of
strong convection persists along the front offshore of SW Florida
and NW Cuba. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and moderate to rough 
seas to 9 ft follow the front, but have diminished across the far
NW Gulf in recent hours. Fresh south to southwest winds are ahead
of the front south of 27N, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Fresh
northerly winds have spread into the Bay of Campeche, where seas
are 5 to 6 ft. A ridge i is building southward behind the front 
and dominates the western Gulf. 

For the forecast, strong thunderstorms will continue along the 
front across the SE Gulf this morning, as the front moves SE and
clears the Gulf basin later today. Fresh to strong NE winds and 
moderate to rough seas will follow the front across the Gulf. 
Winds and seas will subside late tonight into Fri as high pressure
moves across the northern Gulf in the wake of the front. Looking 
ahead, the high pressure will shift E and support fresh E to SE 
winds across the western Gulf Sat through Mon. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Southeasterly winds have diminished across the NW Caribbean in the
past few hours, as a cold front has reached the NE coast of the
Yucatan and is entering the Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are developing along the front as it moves over
waters. Seas across the NW basin have subsided to 4 to 5 ft.  The
pressure gradient between weak high pressure that is present just
north of the Bahamas and relatively weaker pressures in the 
Caribbean is leading to light to gentle winds over the central 
Caribbean. The southern portion of a central Atlantic cold front 
has become nearly stationary across the central Leeward Islands 
as a weakening front. The weak ridge extending across the Bahamas
into Cuba and Hispaniola is producing mostly gentle to moderate 
northerly winds behind the front across the northeast Caribbean. 
Large northerly swell reached the northeast Caribbean coasts and 
Passages yesterday and is moving through the passages and through
narrow zones to the south across the eastern Caribbean. Regional 
buoy observations are revealing seas of 7 to 8 ft through the 
passages, and 3 to 4 ft elsewhere across the eastern basin. 
Scattered to broken low clouds and isolated showers are noted over
the eastern Caribbean to the NW of the stalled front. 

For the forecast, the cold front will move southeastward across 
the Yucatan Channel this morning, then reach from eastern Cuba to 
NE Honduras by Fri morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas 
will immediately follow the front across the NW Caribbean today 
and tonight. Winds and seas will diminish Fri across NW portions 
as the front reaches the the NE coast of Cuba to NE Honduras, then
weakens from Hispaniola to the Honduras-Nicaragua border on Sat. 
High pressure building north of the region in the wake of the 
front will support fresh to strong NE winds in the lee of eastern 
Cuba and across the Windward Passage Fri night through Sat 
evening. Winds and seas will then diminish there Sat night. 
Moderate N swell is moving through the NE Caribbean Passages and 
adjacent Tropical Atlantic waters this morning and will gradually 
subside through early Fri. Strong trade winds and rough seas will 
pulse off the coast of Colombia and the southern coast of 
Hispaniola Sat and Sun as the high pressure settles NE of the 
Bahamas. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Moderate to large N to NE swell dominates the western Atlantic
between the Bahamas and a cold front described above in the
special features along 54W-55W. Seas are 7 to 10 ft across much of
this area. Complex low pressure at the surface has developed
SE through S of Bermuda, underneath deep layered low pressure
aloft that has lingered across the Bermuda area for the past 24
hours. Surface low pressure SE of Bermuda is moving SE and
maintaining moderate to fresh N to NW winds across the area
between 62W and 70W, where peas seas to 10 ft or noted. Very
active thunderstorms continue along and within 200 nm E of the
front to the N of 19N. W of 70W, NE swell is subsiding to 6 to 7
ft. Fresh southerly winds are occurring offshore of Florida and
into the Straits of Florida, ahead of the approaching front now
across N Florida. A few clusters of moderate convection have
recently develop offshore of NE Florida and Georgia.

The remainder of the Atlantic forecast area is under the influence
of a high pressure ridge centered between the cold front and the 
Azores. Fresh to strong anticyclonic flow is occurring south of 
the associated ridge and E of the above mentioned cold front. Seas
are 8 to 10 ft within these winds. Rough to very rough seas 
surrounds the Madeira Islands, as large swell described above is
moving southward towards 31N this morning. Moderate to fresh 
trade winds are over the tropical Atlantic with seas of 6 to 8 ft.
 
For the forecast W of 55W, the broad low pressure SE of Bermuda 
will move southeast to near 26N60W this afternoon, then weaken to
a trough and move slowly NE and east of 55W Fri night. Large 
northerly swell dominates the waters W of 60W and will gradually 
subside through early Fri. An associated cold front extends from 
31N69W to 26N55W to the central Lesser Antilles. An area of strong
to gale-force S to SE winds, rough to very rough seas, and 
scattered strong thunderstorms remains active to the east of the 
front, N of 20N. SE gales occurring N of 26N will move N of the 
area this evening, while the front gradually shifts to the east of
55W by Fri morning. Farther west, a new cold front will move off 
the northeast Florida coast this morning, and reach from Bermuda 
to eastern Cuba by midday Fri, from 31N55W to the Mona Passage by 
Sat morning, then move east of the area early Sun. Strong winds 
and rough seas will follow this front, then diminish from west to 
east as high pressure build eastward along roughly 29N, and settle
NE of the Bahamas Sun and Mon.

$$
Stripling


						
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