Atlantic Discussions
Basin Outlook & Discussion
Expires:No;;495756
ABNT20 KNHC 261747
TWOAT 

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Sep 26 2022

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Active Systems:
The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane 
Ian, located over the northwestern Caribbean Sea.

Central Tropical Atlantic:
Shower and thunderstorm activity has changed little in organization 
today associated with an area of low pressure located several 
hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Despite the proximity 
of nearby dry air, upper-level winds appear generally conducive 
for additional development, and a tropical depression is likely to 
form during the next couple of days as the system meanders over the 
central tropical Atlantic. By the end of this week, upper-level 
winds are forecast to become less favorable for development as the 
system begins to move slowly north-northwestward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin


						

Expires:No;;496153
AXNT20 KNHC 261801
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Mon Sep 26 2022

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1755 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Hurricane Ian continues to intensify. Ian is centered near 19.7N 
83.0W at 26/1800 UTC or 170 nm SE of the western tip of Cuba. The
hurricane is moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central 
pressure is 983 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with 
gusts to 90 kt. Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 
80 nm from the center in the N semicircle, 70 nm in the SE 
quadrant, and 30 nm in the SW quadrant. The sea heights are 12 ft 
or greater within 120 nm of the center N semicircle and 60 nm in 
the S semicircle, with peak seas of around 22 ft. Strong winds and
seas of at least 8 ft associate with Ian encompass an area from 
17N to 22N between 78W and 85W. Numerous strong convection is 
noted within 150 nm of the center. Please, read the latest NHC 
Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT4.shtml,
and the Forecast/Advisory, at 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT4.shtml, for more details.

An area of low pressure with 1008 mb located several hundred 
miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, near 14N36W, continues to 
produce scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 12N 
to 16N and between 31W and 40W. A recent scatterometer satellite
pass indicate that fresh to strong winds are occurring in the
northern and eastern quadrants. Seas are 8-9 ft. Despite the 
proximity of nearby dry air, upper-level winds appear generally 
conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression is
likely to form during the next couple of days as the system 
meanders over the central tropical Atlantic. By the end of this 
week, upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable for 
development as the system begins to move slowly north-
northwestward. There is a high chance of tropical formation in the
next 48 hours. Please, read the Tropical Weather Outlook, at the 
following website, 
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for more
details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

No tropical waves are present at this time.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 15N17W to 09N25W to 13N33W. The ITCZ extends from
09N43W to 14N61W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 
12N to 18N and E of 22W. Similar convection is present from 09N to
16N and between 52W and 62W, affecting parts of the Lesser 
Antilles.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Please read the Special Features section for details regarding
Hurricane Ian. 

A surface trough is analyzed near the coasts of Tamaulipas and
Veracruz. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the trough
axis. The rest of the basin enjoys fairly tranquil weather
conditions. Surface and satellite-derived wind data indicate that
moderate or weaker winds prevail across the Gulf, except for fresh
to locally strong NW winds in the SW Gulf associated with the
convection in the area. Seas in the Gulf are 1-3 ft.

For the forecast, Hurricane Ian is near 19.1N 82.7W 980 mb at 11 AM EDT
moving NW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts 
to 85 kt. Ian is expected to intensify rapidly through the next 36
hours. Ian will move across W Cuba tonight and reach near 22.7N 
84W Tue morning as a major hurricane, near 26.1N 83.8W Wed 
morning, near 27.2N 83.5W Thu morning and then inland across N 
Florida late Thu night to early Fri morning. Expect hazardous 
conditions in the southeastern Gulf and Straits of Florida 
beginning before midnight tonight, then spreading north and 
northwestward across the E and central Gulf Tue through early Fri.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for details on
Hurricane Ian.

Outside of the influence of Hurricane Ian, fairly tranquil
conditions persist across the Caribbean Sea. A weak pressure
gradient result in moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds
in the central and eastern Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 3-6
ft. Light to gentle southerly winds and seas of 1-3 ft are found
in the SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, Hurricane Ian is near 19.1N 82.7W 980 mb at 11 AM EDT
moving NW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts 
to 85 kt. Ian is expected to intensify rapidly through the next 36
hours. Ian will move to near 20.7N 83.5W this evening, near 22.7N
84W Tue morning as a major hurricane, near 24.5N 84W Tue evening,
then near 26.1N 83.8W Wed morning, before veering NNE across the 
NE Gulf of Mexico and inland across N Florida late Thu night to 
early Fri morning. Hazardous marine conditions will prevail in the
NW Caribbean through Tue evening, before winds and seas gradually
subside as Ian moves N of the basin.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for details on
Hurricane Ian and on an area of low pressure well west of the 
Cabo Verde islands that has potential to develop into a tropical 
depression this week. 

A weak surface trough near South Florida and divergence aloft
result in scattered showers near the NW Bahamas and off SE
Florida. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 31N62W to
28N68W and only a few showers are noted the trough axis. Moderate
to fresh E-SE winds and seas of 4-8 ft prevail W of 60W.

In the north-central tropical Atlantic, a large swell region is
producing seas of 8-11 ft N of 20N and between 35W and 60W. Winds
in these waters are mainly moderate to locally fresh. Meanwhile, 
the remnants of Hermine are located near 25N20W and a surface 
trough extends from the low pressure to 20N25W. Only a few showers
are noted near the remnants of Hermine and trough axis. The 
pressure gradient between a strong high pressure north of Azores 
and lower pressures associated with the remnants of Hermine and NW
Africa result in fresh to strong NE winds N of 25N and E of 30W. 

The rest of the basin is dominated by a broad ridge that maintains
fairly tranquil weather conditions. In these waters, moderate or 
weaker winds and seas of 3-6 ft prevail.

For the forecast, Hurricane Ian is near 19.1N 82.7W 980 mb at 11 AM EDT
moving NW at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts 
to 85 kt. Ian is expected to intensify rapidly through the next 36
hours. Ian will move to near 22.7N 84W Tue morning as a major 
hurricane, then near 26.1N 83.8W Wed morning, near 27.2N 83.5W Thu
morning and then inland across N Florida late Thu night to early 
Fri morning. Strong southeasterly winds occurring well to the E 
of Ian are expected to impact the waters W of 76W as Ian moves 
through the Gulf of Mexico Tue afternoon through Fri night.
Tropical storm force winds are currently forecast for the NE 
Florida coastal waters Thu through Fri.

$$
DELGADO


						
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